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After the long-term rise in aluminum prices, there were signs of a fall in this month, and the decline was more obvious. The fall in aluminum prices has caused losses for businesses holding large amounts of scrap aluminum. Then let's analyze the recent situation of the scrap aluminum market.

Recently, aluminum prices have fallen more sharply. Last week, it was the biggest weekly decline since May this year. The price of scrap aluminum fell sharply, and the mainstream price of aluminum bright line was between 13,000-13400 yuan/ton. The mainstream price of aluminum alloy is in

11100-12200 yuan / ton. The willingness of scrap aluminum merchants to ship is not high, and some merchants have a strong wait-and-see attitude in the case of losses. The reasons are mainly as follows:

First, consumption is weak, and cost support collapses to impact aluminum prices. Although some “2+26” cities started to implement the heating season limit measures in advance, the price of electrolytic aluminum fell all the way.

Second, the limited season for heating seasons is limited. Henan, Shandong Binzhou, Zibo, Liaocheng and Shanxi Luliang areas have successively introduced production restriction plans, with a total reduction of 3.477 million tons, which is worse than the expected 4 million tons. The heating season has affected the production of electrolytic aluminum by about 975,000 tons in 4 months.

Third, Guangxi, Inner Mongolia and other non-heating seasons have been put into production. In the fourth quarter of 2017, the newly-injected production capacity of electrolytic aluminum reached 2.28 million tons, mainly concentrated in Guangxi, Guizhou and Inner Mongolia. At the end of October, the capacity of electrolytic aluminum was replaced by a small climax. The replacement capacity of aluminum enterprises in Shanxi, Guizhou and Xinjiang totaled 2,155,300 tons. In the process of capacity replacement, there is a case where the capacity replacement index is expanded by increasing the current intensity. Therefore, the output of electrolytic aluminum in October decreased by only 1.9% from the previous month, an increase of 5.6.

Fourth, capacity replacement caused the decline in national electrolytic aluminum production to fall short of expectations.

Fifth, the winter downstream enters the low season of demand, and the cost support is shaken under the rising trend of raw materials. The real estate industry is currently not prosperous, and the decline in construction has led to a decline in market demand. The prospects for car development are good, but they account for a relatively small proportion. The market price of scrap aluminum has been running smoothly, and most of the merchants have small profit margins, and some merchants have lost money.

Based on the above factors, the decline in aluminum prices is obvious. Zhuo Chuang expects that the price of scrap aluminum will remain weak and volatile in the short term.